Tuesday, December 8, 2020

No congressional seats in Texas flipped, but campaign cash flowed into key races like it was a battleground

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/12/07/no-congressional-seats-in-texas-flipped-but-campaign-cash-flowed-into-key-races-like-it-was-a-battleground/

 

WASHINGTON — More than $110 million in campaign cash was spent in Texas' 12 most contested U.S. House races this election cycle, underscoring the reality that donors — if not necessarily voters — considered the state to be a bona fide battleground.

That staggering sum, revealed late last week in new campaign finance reports, came on top of the nearly $63 million spent in this year's U.S. Senate race, the state's other hot federal battle.

All of that money didn't end up mattering much. Not a single congressional seat flipped, even after Democrats targeted 10 pick-up opportunities in the House, along with Sen. John Cornyn's seat in the Senate, and the GOP sought to win back two seats in the House.

But the tallies still represented a significant shift, signaling that there's enough Democratic enthusiasm in the longstanding GOP state to ensure pricey elections for years to come.

Consider that in Texas' 12 most active House races, fundraising and spending increased fourfold from 2016. Fourteen candidates brought in more than $3 million this cycle, compared to one four years ago. Democrats in those districts together raised about $53 million, while Republicans posted $58 million.

That relative partisan parity is stunning in and of itself.

In 2016, Democrats in those 12 districts collectively brought in a piddly $1.7 million, leaving them $17.3 million short of their Republican counterparts. So while fundraising has increased substantially all around, the trend is most pronounced on the Democratic side.

Here are a few other takeaways from the most recent reports filed with the Federal Election Commission:

Republicans spent like they had fights on their hands

The GOP was confident heading into Election Day, dismissing the idea that a blue wave would wash over Texas. Their bravado was justified. Not only did they hold every congressional seat targeted by the Democrats, their candidates generally won by larger margins than two years ago.

But they didn't take anything for granted, campaign finance data suggest.

Republicans in the dozen most-competitive House races collectively spent more than $13 million in the most recent reporting period. (That time frame runs from mid-October through Nov. 23, but the vast majority of the funds in those races were spent before the Nov. 3 election.)

The same time period four years ago? Conservative candidates in those districts collectively spent about $1.9 million.

Dan Crenshaw is a fundraising juggernaut

Houston Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a freshman Republican, is a truly elite fundraiser.

The retired Navy SEAL brought in nearly $19 million through late November. That's Scrooge McDuck kind of cash, giving him status that typically only comes with being part of House leadership. Think House Speaker Nancy Pelosi or House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Case in point: The $2.7 million that Crenshaw raised in the most recent period is more than some notable Texas candidates raised over this entire election cycle.

Crenshaw's name has already been floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate, perhaps sooner rather than later. If the Republican can raise this kind of moolah amid more stringent federal guidelines, it's not hard to imagine him raking in enormous sums under unrestricted state rules.

MJ Hegar out-raised Cornyn

Cornyn early on braced for a tough reelection challenge, warning his conservative supporters that they couldn't be complacent. And perhaps with good reason.

While the Republican defeated Democrat MJ Hegar, an Air Force veteran, by a comfortable 9.6 percentage points, Hegar ended up raising more money than Cornyn over the two-year cycle to date: $29.6 million to $28.4 million.

Those totals still put the duo behind several other notable Senate clashes across the U.S. In South Carolina, for instance, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham brought in some $109 million to defeat Democrat Jaime Harrison, who broke records by raising more than $132 million.

Both Cornyn and Hegar, it should be noted, benefited from outside spending.

Gina Ortiz Jones spent the most per vote — and lost

Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, an Air Force veteran, in 2018 lost to Rep. Will Hurd, R-San Antonio, by less than 1,000 votes in a battle to represent a sweeping border district. So she tried again this year, raising more than $7 million for a race most pundits expected her to win.

Jones ended up losing by an even bigger margin to Republican Tony Gonzales, a Navy veteran.

Her defeat this year also came with the inglorious honor of having spent the most money per vote – at least among Texas hottest congressional races – to then go on and lose. The total in Jones' case ended up being about $52 per vote.

Others in the running were Democrat Wendy Davis – who spent about $50 per vote to lose to Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin – and Republican Wesley Hunt, who spent about $49 per vote to lose to Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, D-Houston.

Ron Wright ran the leanest winning campaign

While money poured into congressional races across Texas, the race between Rep. Ron Wright, R-Arlington, and Democrat Stephen Daniel didn't receive quite the same attention. Neither candidate brought in more than $1 million in the race, which Wright won by 8.8 points.

But that outcome meant that Wright ran the most efficient winning campaign, spending less than $5 per vote.

The closest contender to Wright was Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, a Republican who defeated Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni for a seat being vacated by Rep. Pete Olson, R-Sugar Land. Nehls ended up spending about $8 per vote.

Renaud D. Brown, M.M.

 

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