Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Inequality predicts financial crises says Federal reserve researcher

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2017-23.pdf

 

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows still more clearly the link between economic inequality and financial-crisis risk. This paper deploys exhaustive research across decades in 17 countries based on statistical correlations of inequality, productivity, credit growth, and crises. Although productivity has a strong impact on crisis risk, a widening income share for the top one percent is the most predictive antecedent to a crash even when controlling for an array of other possible causes, including the asset-price bubbles that gave the Fed so much pause yet again in its latest financial-stability report.

 

Charlie Cooper

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